Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National maintains a commanding lead in first-round polling averages near 35 percent for the April 2027 presidential election, driven by sustained support amid political polarization and the weakening of centrist options after Emmanuel Macron’s second term. The contest for the second runoff spot remains fluid, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise often edging ahead at 15-18 percent in recent surveys, followed closely by Édouard Philippe and Raphaël Glucksmann in the low-to-mid teens depending on candidate lineups. October 2026 polls from Ifop and OpinionWay show Mélenchon and Glucksmann gaining ground while Philippe slips in some scenarios. Le Pen’s legal appeal process continues, with a Court of Cassation ruling expected before the first round on April 18, 2027.