Friedrich Merz’s CDU-led government faces mounting pressure after heavy defeats in September and October 2026 state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin, where the party’s support collapsed while the AfD surged. National polls now place the CDU/CSU below 20 percent, prompting internal debate over a possible mid-term Kanzlertausch. Potential successors such as Hendrik Wüst, Markus Söder, Boris Pistorius, and Alice Weidel register only single-digit or low-teen implied probabilities, reflecting the absence of a clear replacement with broad party backing and the next scheduled Bundestag election remaining in 2029. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to no change in the chancellorship before 2028, viewing the current leadership’s resilience and institutional barriers to an early swap as the dominant near-term factors.