Recent polling shows a tight contest between Democratic Progressive Party candidate Su Chiao-hui and Chinese Nationalist Party candidate Lee Shu-chuan for the November 28, 2026, New Taipei mayoral election. A mid-October survey gave Su a 13-point lead after gains among undecided voters and in traditionally KMT-leaning areas, while a separate KMT-commissioned poll showed Lee ahead by roughly 7 points. Blue-white coordination behind Lee and ongoing local campaigning on infrastructure, housing, and district-level outreach have kept the race competitive. Trader probabilities near 50% reflect these conflicting signals and the potential for late shifts in turnout or voter preferences across the city’s 29 districts.