Recent state polling for the March 2027 New South Wales election shows Labor maintaining a primary-vote lead, while the non-Labor vote remains fragmented between the Liberal–National Coalition and One Nation. Coalition support has hovered in the low-to-mid 20s percent range across Resolve and DemosAU surveys through mid-2026, with One Nation often matching or exceeding those figures amid gains in outer metropolitan and regional seats. This split keeps probabilities for second place closely matched between the two, as optional preferential voting and preference flows could shift final tallies. The Greens remain in single digits on primary support, limiting their prospects for second. Scheduled events such as further preference modeling and any late campaign shifts in voter turnout could alter positioning before election day.