Current market-implied odds heavily favor no new pandemic before 2028 because no pathogen under surveillance exhibits sustained human-to-human transmission capable of global spread. Official WHO and CDC assessments rate ongoing mpox clade I outbreaks as moderate risk only for men who have sex with men and low for the general population, with domestic U.S. cases rising modestly but without exponential growth. The large Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remains geographically concentrated despite high case fatality, while H5N1 avian influenza produces only sporadic zoonotic infections without efficient person-to-person spread. Post-COVID surveillance enhancements and WHO's new 24-hour detection hub further reduce escalation likelihood, though traders monitor recombinant mpox strains and any H5N1 mutations for shifts in transmissibility.