Robust US economic momentum underpins the 97.2% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. Consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project real GDP expansion of 2.1–2.4% for the year, fueled by resilient consumer spending, AI-related business fixed investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2%. Recent Q3 nowcasts from the Atlanta Fed and St. Louis Fed show annualized growth above 2.9%, while September FOMC projections and October surveys affirm continued expansion above trend. Tail risks such as a sharp escalation in oil prices from geopolitical tensions or an unexpected monetary policy error could pressure activity, though current data and leading indicators suggest these scenarios remain low-probability outliers.