The new NBA draft lottery rules, featuring a "relegation zone" for the three worst records and flatter odds from fourth through tenth, shape incentives around avoiding extreme tanking while still motivating bottom teams without their own first-round picks. Sacramento leads market pricing due to preseason projections of roughly 18-22 wins, driven by a youth-focused rebuild around Darius Acuff Jr., Zach LaVine, and Domantas Sabonis amid roster transitions, veteran departures like DeMar DeRozan, and ongoing injury management. Milwaukee and Brooklyn follow as post-trade rebuilding squads—the Bucks after moving Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Nets adding Julius Randle—projected near 24-26 wins but potentially more willing to linger low without controlling their picks. A broad group of play-in fringe teams creates the wide distribution, with health, schedule strength, and midseason adjustments as key variables.