Hsu Shu-hua, the Kuomintang incumbent magistrate of Nantou County, holds a commanding 95.8% implied probability in the November 2026 election due to sustained local support for her administration’s fiscal and welfare record. Recent polling from early October shows 69.6% approval of her performance and 69.8% backing for re-election, driven by achievements such as clearing NT$91 billion in county debt within three years, expanding elderly healthcare subsidies, and improving rural transport services. The Kuomintang’s long-standing control of the county since 2005, combined with unified party backing and cross-party signals of cooperation, reinforces trader consensus around continuity. Wen Shih-cheng of the Democratic Progressive Party remains the main challenger at 3.3%. A late scandal, sharp national political shift, or unusually strong opposition turnout could still alter the outcome before voting day.