**Aaron Flint holds a clear lead in trader pricing for Montana’s open 1st congressional district seat, reflecting the district’s Republican tilt and recent campaign developments.** The seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Ryan Zinke, sits in territory Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Flint, a radio host and retired lieutenant colonel endorsed by Trump, has focused attacks on Democrat Sam Forstag’s prior lobbying work for groups including the ACLU and Planned Parenthood, as well as Forstag’s support for local sales and property tax measures. Recent ads and a dedicated microsite have amplified these lines. Public polls through late September show a statistical tie or narrow margins either way, yet prediction markets assign Flint roughly 70-75% implied probability, consistent with historical performance of Republican candidates in this district ahead of the November 3 election.