**Bennie Thompson's long incumbency and the Mississippi 2nd District's D+11 partisan lean anchor strong Democratic positioning ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Ron Eller and independent Bennie Foster.** Primaries concluded in March with Thompson securing the Democratic nomination by a wide margin and Eller narrowly prevailing on the Republican side. Limited polling this cycle leaves traders assigning probabilities across multiple Democratic margin bands between 15 and 40 points, reflecting uncertainty over exact turnout in the Delta and Jackson areas as well as any late-cycle national or local shifts. The Republican win outcome trades near zero, consistent with the district's structural Democratic advantage and historical results, while the spread across margin contracts highlights how modest changes in voter participation or campaign dynamics could alter the final gap without threatening the overall outcome.