Mojtaba Khamenei has remained out of public view since his March 2026 appointment as Iran's Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei's death in a February strike, with all official communications released only in written form. Traders assess low near-term probabilities for an appearance due to reported injuries sustained in the attack, heightened security measures around the leadership amid ongoing regional conflicts, and the regime's preference for controlled messaging through intermediaries such as President Masoud Pezeshkian. Recent October statements from Iranian officials and a Russian envoy confirm he is active in private meetings but deliberately avoiding cameras or public events, consistent with patterns seen in prior leadership transitions. Potential catalysts include scheduled religious commemorations or state funerals that could prompt visibility, though no verified sightings or authenticated footage have emerged to shift the consensus.