Matt Little holds a commanding lead in the MN-02 House race for the open seat previously held by Angie Craig, who opted to run for Senate instead. Recent forecasts rate the contest Likely Democratic, with Little projected to win by roughly 10 points in a district that has shifted leftward in recent cycles. Little secured the Democratic nomination after a contested primary, drawing strong party support and higher fundraising, while Eric Pratt advanced unopposed on the Republican side. A recent October debate highlighted differences on issues including healthcare, data centers, and foreign policy, but the race has drawn limited national spending or attention. Traders price in the district’s current partisan lean and Little’s structural advantages, though an unusually large swing in turnout or late-breaking developments could still narrow the margin before November 3.