Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate race between Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya features a modest Democratic polling edge of roughly three to four points and higher reported enthusiasm among Democratic voters. With Election Day one week away, early and absentee ballot data show steady but not record-setting participation among the state’s roughly 3.9 million registered voters. Minnesota’s same-day registration system, competitive Senate contest, and partisan get-out-the-vote efforts support turnout near recent midterm levels, while uncertainty over independent participation, weather on November 3, and final-week mobilization keeps trader probabilities clustered across the 2.6–3.05 million vote range.