Recent upward revisions to Mexico’s full-year 2026 GDP forecasts—to 1.4–1.5% by the IMF, OECD, Banxico survey, and firms such as Goldman Sachs and BBVA—reflect stronger-than-expected Q2 performance and resilient exports, including AI-linked manufacturing. These factors, alongside gradual domestic-demand recovery, underpin trader expectations that Q3 year-over-year growth will settle in the 2.0–3.5% range priced at roughly 85% combined probability. Mixed Q3 signals, including flat consumption, weak formal employment, and persistent trade-policy uncertainty ahead of the USMCA review, sustain the close contest among the top three bins while keeping lower outcomes at single-digit odds. The first INEGI estimate, due October 30, will resolve the market.