Morena holds a clear lead in trader sentiment for the Mexico City Congress election, reflecting its strong polling position and control of the local government ahead of the 2027 vote. Recent surveys on capital borough races show Morena and PAN as the main contenders, with the ruling party projected to retain most districts amid high identification among voters. The fragmented opposition—split across PAN, PRI, MC, and smaller parties—limits any single challenger's ability to consolidate support, keeping secondary probabilities clustered near even odds. Key upcoming factors include alliance negotiations, candidate selections, and turnout patterns that could widen or narrow Morena's edge before election day.