Morena holds a modest lead in trader pricing for the Mexico City Congress outcome amid consistent polling advantages of roughly 20–25 points over individual rivals in recent national and capital surveys conducted through late September 2026. The opposition remains fragmented, with PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano each polling in the low-to-mid teens and no formal alliance confirmed ahead of the June 2027 vote. Early positioning for the 16 alcaldías and 66 local deputy seats, combined with the final re-election window before 2030 term limits, has kept internal party negotiations and candidate selection in focus without producing measurable shifts in preference. The National Electoral Institute’s installation of the CDMX local council in late September marks the formal start of preparations, yet undecided voters and potential coalition dynamics continue to sustain uncertainty around seat totals.