Recent September 2026 data showed Mexico’s headline inflation rising to 3.45% year-over-year from 3.26% in August, propelled by non-core components including food and energy prices, while core inflation eased to 3.75%. Private-sector analysts in the latest Banxico survey project 2026 headline inflation closing the year at 3.87%, with core at 3.90%, supporting the market’s strong weighting toward the 3.50%-3.99% range. Banco de México’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% amid moderating GDP growth expectations near 1.4-1.5% reinforces a steady disinflation path, though volatile non-core items and persistent services inflation introduce some uncertainty around the final annual print.