The enduring U.S. trade embargo, tightened further in 2026 through new Treasury restrictions on travel, banking access for private entrepreneurs, and fuel shipments, remains the primary barrier preventing McDonald’s from announcing operations in Cuba. U.S. law bars American companies from commercial activity on the island without rare OFAC licenses, and no such approvals or bilateral agreements have materialized despite Cuban Decree 167 and statements from officials like Miguel Díaz-Canel and Manuel Marrero exploring foreign franchises in theory. Only a single McDonald’s exists on the restricted U.S. naval base at Guantánamo Bay. Trader consensus at 96% “No” reflects these structural constraints and the absence of any qualifying announcement as the year advances. A sudden embargo easing, specific license grant, or major diplomatic breakthrough before year-end could still shift the outcome.