New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has repeatedly deferred any commitment on reparations to the findings of the city's Commission on Racial Equity, whose final reparations study is scheduled for release in July 2027—after the market's March 31, 2027 cutoff. In July 2026 interviews, Mamdani acknowledged the city's historical role in slavery and left the possibility of cash payments open if recommended, but he explicitly declined to endorse specific policies or timelines in advance of the commission's report. Ongoing commission work includes community outreach and funding allocations, yet no official announcement of direct payments tied to descent from enslaved persons has occurred. Traders assign high probability to "No" due to this procedural timeline and Mamdani's consistent stance of awaiting the commission's completed analysis.