**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 93.5% because VEI 6+ eruptions are geologically infrequent, with recurrence intervals typically spanning 50–100 years.** The most recent example was the 1991 Pinatubo event, and 2025–2026 activity monitored by the USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and national observatories has remained limited to smaller events (maximum VEI 3–4). Ongoing eruptions at Kīlauea, Great Sitkin, Semeru, and others show modest explosivity and effusive behavior, while large calderas such as Yellowstone and Campi Flegrei exhibit normal to low-level unrest with no indicators of rapid pressure buildup or magma mobilization capable of producing a colossal event before year-end. Realistic challenges include rapid escalation at an under-monitored system or unexpected intensification at a restless volcano, though current seismic, deformation, and gas data make this improbable.