Kevin Warsh’s appointment as Federal Reserve Chair has produced a hawkish policy stance focused on taming persistent inflation above the 2% target. Recent unanimous rate hikes to the 3.75–4% range, combined with statements emphasizing the need to remove accommodation and warnings that further tightening may be required, have shaped trader expectations. The current federal funds rate sits well above 2.5%, and Warsh’s record of prioritizing price stability over political calls for cuts reinforces the view that policy will remain restrictive. Only a sharp, sustained drop in inflation or an unexpected dovish pivot would realistically shift the implied probability away from rates staying elevated.