U.S. federal prosecutors are pursuing a multi-count indictment against Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in the Southern District of New York on narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, weapons offenses, and a recently added conspiracy to commit torture. Both defendants have pleaded not guilty, with a trial scheduled for June 2027. Defense motions challenging the indictment on head-of-state immunity grounds remain pending, with a hearing set for November 2026, while prosecutors argue no such protection applies given U.S. recognition of Venezuela’s interim leadership since 2019. The requirement for conviction on every count by the market’s December 2027 cutoff introduces substantial uncertainty in a complex, contested proceeding. Trader positioning at 64% for “No” aligns with the high bar for unanimous outcomes across all charges amid ongoing pretrial litigation and the possibility of partial verdicts or other resolutions.