Flávio Bolsonaro holds a consistent lead in runoff polling and commands an 86% implied probability on Polymarket ahead of the October 25 vote, driven by his stronger-than-expected 47% first-round finish on October 4 that edged out incumbent Lula at 45%. Most national surveys since the first round, including averages from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, Quaest, and PoderData, show the Liberal Party senator ahead by roughly four points on valid votes, aided by consolidation of support from eliminated right-wing candidates. Lula’s approval ratings remain below 50% amid voter concerns over economic conditions and public debt. Scheduled debates on October 18 and 23, plus final-week polling releases, remain the key near-term catalysts that could narrow or widen the gap before ballots close.