Recent forecast models for Tel Aviv on October 15 indicate overnight lows stabilizing near 20–22°C amid mild Mediterranean conditions, with southwest winds of 5–8 m/s and variable cloud cover limiting radiative cooling. This supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 19–21°C, as GFS and regional ensembles show minimal divergence in minimum temperatures. Light showers or increased humidity could nudge readings toward 19°C, while clearer skies favor 21°C. Historical October minima average near 18–20°C, placing current expectations slightly above baseline. Final resolution depends on official Israel Meteorological Service observations through the night, with traders weighting the latest model updates for any last-hour adjustments in wind or cloud patterns.