Recent model consensus from agencies and forecasters points to an overnight low near 24–26°C for Shenzhen on October 15, driven by persistent easterly flow, high humidity near 70–85%, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. These conditions, typical of the region's subtropical autumn regime with a strong high-pressure influence, keep minimum temperatures above the long-term October average of roughly 21–23°C. Traders appear to weigh slight variations in forecast timing and local urban heat effects, producing closely matched implied probabilities across 21–27°C outcomes. Updated runs from regional models and official observations expected overnight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.