**Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and multiple models centers the overnight low for New York City on October 15 near 55–57°F, creating the tightest market clustering between the 56–59°F bins.** Northerly flow behind a departing front advects a cooler, drier air mass while high pressure promotes clear skies and efficient radiational cooling after sunset. Morning temperatures are expected to bottom out near dawn before northeast winds and rising insolation drive a rebound into the low-to-mid 60s. This setup aligns with early-to-mid October climatology, where clear, post-frontal nights often produce the month’s sharper drops; any increase in cloud cover or a slower wind shift could limit cooling and favor the upper end of the leading outcomes.