**Forecast models from agencies like the National Weather Service equivalents and regional sources indicate the overnight low in Jeddah on October 13 will likely settle near 28–29°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those levels.** Coastal Red Sea sea-surface temperatures near 30°C limit radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and moderate westerly to northwesterly winds of 5–10 mph, while high humidity (60–80%) reduces the diurnal range. Recent stable high-pressure patterns and absence of significant cloud cover or frontal systems have kept conditions close to seasonal October baselines, where typical minima hover around 27–29°C. Minor variations in exact timing of the minimum or localized urban heat effects create the observed spread between 25–29°C outcomes, with lower probabilities reflecting historical rarity of sharper drops absent unusual advection. Updated model runs overnight will refine resolution criteria tied to official station readings.