**Diverging numerical weather prediction models for Busan’s overnight minimum on October 13 create tightly balanced market-implied odds centered on 15–19 °C.** Coastal marine air and recent precipitation have maintained elevated dew points near 15–19 °C through the afternoon, while clearing skies and northwest winds of 10–15 km/h are expected to enhance radiative cooling after sunset. Official Korea Meteorological Administration observations, which resolve the daily minimum, remain sensitive to exact timing of cloud dissipation and local wind shifts. Historical October lows in Busan average near 14–16 °C, but today’s guidance shows a spread from roughly 13 °C (clear, calm conditions) to 19 °C (lingering moisture or breeze), keeping the 45–55 % range competitive until final readings are confirmed.