Mild southerly airflow across the North Sea and partial cloud cover overnight have limited radiative cooling in Amsterdam, anchoring the daily minimum near 11–12°C according to the latest model guidance. Southerly winds of 4–6 m/s and dew points around 10–12°C have suppressed the typical autumnal drop, while varying cloud thickness and exact timing of the nocturnal low create the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 10–12°C. These conditions contrast with climatological October minima near 8–9°C, keeping probabilities for sub-9°C outcomes subdued unless clearer skies develop earlier than expected.