**The closely contested 51% market-implied probability for a 2026 engagement reflects the couple’s established, high-profile relationship without any confirmed proposal.** Livvy Dunne and Paul Skenes have been publicly together since 2023 after meeting at LSU, with consistent displays of support through Skenes’ MLB seasons and Dunne’s transition from gymnastics (retired 2025) into acting, including her upcoming Baywatch reboot role. Recent October 2026 developments—Dunne’s 24th birthday Bahamas trip, Skenes’ affectionate Instagram tribute, and shared offseason travel posts with their dog—underscore ongoing stability and public affection, yet all coverage continues to describe Dunne as his girlfriend with no verified engagement news as of mid-October. Traders appear balanced between the pair’s long-term trajectory and typical timeline for such milestones versus the absence of concrete signals and the shrinking window before year-end. Key potential tipping points include holiday-season announcements, family events, or coordinated social media reveals, which could rapidly shift sentiment given the market’s sensitivity to verified updates in entertainment and sports celebrity timelines.