Rafael López Aliaga’s Renovación Popular list holds a narrow lead in the October 4, 2026, Lima municipal election count, with roughly 27.7% of valid votes at 93% reporting, ahead of Francis Allison’s Avanza País at 26.8% and Carlos Bruce at 15%. López Aliaga, who resigned the mayoralty in October 2025 to pursue a presidential bid, appears on the ballot as first councilor after the party’s original nominee withdrew. Peruvian law prohibits immediate mayoral re-election, yet electoral authorities approved the list on procedural grounds, leaving final proclamation and any legal challenges unresolved. Traders assign his outcome an 83% implied probability, reflecting the consistent polling advantage through late September, the absence of a runoff, and the view that remaining tally sheets and court reviews are unlikely to reverse the current margin.