Lebanon's next parliamentary elections, now slated for 2028 after a two-year extension amid the 2026 conflict with Israel and related security concerns, feature a highly fragmented field with no dominant contender. The Constitutional Council upheld the delay to May 2028 while noting Parliament's duty to shorten it if circumstances permit, leaving timing and electoral law reforms—including expatriate voting and districting—as open variables. Hezbollah's political standing has weakened following the war and subsequent ceasefire framework, while Lebanese Forces, Amal Movement, Free Patriotic Movement, and various independents or smaller lists compete across sectarian lines under the proportional system. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with all listed parties below 1% implied probability, as coalition dynamics, potential new alliances, and external diplomatic pressures could consolidate support or shift seat totals before voting.