The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 47–51% for Bohemians, St Patrick's Athletic, Shamrock Rovers, and Derry City stems from their comparable defensive records late in the 2026 Premier Division campaign. St Patrick's Athletic lead with the fewest goals conceded and the highest clean-sheet tally through 32 matches, bolstered by Joseph Anang's consistent shot-stopping. Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers sit close behind with 11 clean sheets each, supported by strong recent form from keepers like Kacper Chorążka and Edward McGinty. Derry City remain competitive despite more goals allowed overall. With only a handful of fixtures remaining, minor variances in results, home/away splits, and schedule congestion keep the race wide open among these sides.