Morgan Stanley’s commanding 82.5% implied probability reflects its confirmed lead-left role in Anthropic’s anticipated IPO, backed by its leadership of the company’s $15 billion pre-IPO revolving credit facility and consistent positioning in June and September 2026 reporting from Bloomberg and the Financial Times. Goldman Sachs’ 16.3% share aligns with its expected stabilization-agent mandate and joint bookrunner status, mirroring its involvement in comparable mega-cap tech listings. The remaining banks trail due to lower commitment tiers in the credit syndicate and limited public indications of top billing. With the S-1 filing eyed for late September and pricing targeted for mid-October, recent timeline slippage from the $15 billion facility negotiations has reinforced the existing underwriter hierarchy rather than introducing new contenders.