**Marine Le Pen faces an upheld embezzlement conviction from the July 2026 Paris appeals court ruling, which imposed a one-year prison term to be served under electronic monitoring alongside a reduced ineligibility period that leaves her eligible for the 2027 presidential race.** Her immediate appeal to the Cour de Cassation suspends enforcement of the sentence, including any ankle monitor requirement, preserving her ability to campaign freely in the interim. The highest court has indicated it could decide the case before the April 2027 first round, and even an unfavorable outcome would face further procedural delays in sentencing implementation, potential reductions for compliance, and judicial discretion over movement restrictions. As of mid-October 2026, Le Pen has publicly declared her candidacy, stated she expects to run without monitoring, and faces no active electronic surveillance. These factors—suspended penalties, timeline constraints, and her continued political activity—underpin trader consensus that the monitor will not be applied before the election.