Recent reports indicate three finalist ownership groups competing for the Las Vegas NBA expansion franchise, with bids centering on a $12 billion to $13 billion total package that includes the expansion fee plus costs for a new arena. Developments in October 2026 include fresh arena site proposals near AREA15 and Allegiant Stadium, mayor support for one location, and Egon Durban joining the Walton-Laurie group, all while the NBA targets formal approval by December. These factors, combined with varying estimates on the fee portion versus arena construction and uncertainty around the final negotiated price, keep implied probabilities tightly clustered across the listed valuation ranges and the no-resolution-by-deadline outcome.