**No court has ruled the June 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary fraudulent, supporting the 78.8% implied probability that none will.** The primary advanced Karen Bass and Nithya Raman to the November 3 runoff after official tallies showed Bass at 34.3% and Raman at 29.0%, with Spencer Pratt eliminated at 25.5%. Early claims of irregularities centered on incremental ballot batch updates and a brief reporting lag in one electronic update, which fueled online allegations of manipulation favoring Democratic candidates. These were promptly rejected by Los Angeles County election officials, who confirmed Pratt received votes in every batch, and by the Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney for the Central District, who reviewed records and called the specific zero-vote claims false. No verified lawsuits have produced evidence sufficient for a court to invalidate the primary results or order a new first round. Broader California election disputes, including a state Supreme Court ruling against a sheriff’s unauthorized ballot seizure in another county, have not extended to the LA mayoral contest or altered its certified outcome. The absence of successful legal challenges or new substantiated developments in the months since the primary has reinforced trader expectations that the first-round results will stand.