Chen Yu-jen, the Kuomintang nominee and sitting legislator, holds a commanding lead in the November 28, 2026 Kinmen County Magistrate race due to party consolidation and structural advantages in a traditionally KMT-leaning county. A KMT-commissioned poll from mid-September showed her at 45.4% support against a fragmented field of six independents, outpacing runner-up Li Wen-liang by 34.7 points with 37.6% undecided. Rival Yang Cheng-wu withdrew in early September to preserve party unity, leaving opposition votes split among candidates including Li, Liang Wen-tao, and others. Traders price her at 95% implied probability, reflecting her local legislative record, cross-strait policy emphasis, and the absence of a unified challenger capable of overcoming the KMT base. Late shifts remain possible if undecided voters consolidate behind a single opponent or if unforeseen campaign developments alter momentum before election day.