Traders assign a 97% probability against Kim Jong Un visiting the United States in 2026 because no official plans or credible signals indicate such a trip, while recent developments center on possible summit diplomacy elsewhere. President Trump has publicly floated a meeting during his November Asia itinerary around the APEC summit in China, yet North Korea has responded with missile tests and a museum display of US-range ICBMs to project strength and seek leverage. Historical summits occurred in Singapore, Hanoi, and the Korean DMZ, reflecting Pyongyang’s reluctance to travel to US territory amid security, propaganda, and protocol concerns. A US visit would require major shifts in bilateral conditions, including sanctions relief or recognition of nuclear status, none of which appear imminent. Late-year breakthroughs remain theoretically possible but face steep logistical and political barriers.