Hsieh Kuo-liang, the Kuomintang incumbent, holds the leading position in the Keelung mayoral race ahead of the November 28 vote, reflecting his incumbency advantage and survival of a 2024 recall effort that required only a minority threshold to succeed. Recent KMT-commissioned polling shows him ahead of Democratic Progressive Party challenger Tung Tzu-wei by roughly 4–6 points in head-to-head support and expected vote share, with an independent candidate trailing far behind. Candidate qualification was confirmed this month with no major disqualifications, and the contest remains shaped by local issues such as healthcare expansion and city development priorities. Trader pricing aligns with these structural and polling factors while leaving room for shifts from late-campaign events or turnout variations in the final weeks.