José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero remains under judicial investigation at Spain’s Audiencia Nacional in the ongoing Caso Plus Ultra and related lines of inquiry involving alleged influence peddling, payments linked to business interests in Bolivia, and separate questions over high-value jewelry. As of mid-October 2026 the case is still in the instruction phase, with repeated summonses for testimony but no formal trial underway. Complex corruption proceedings at this court routinely span multiple years from initial imputation to any potential conviction or sentencing. Traders therefore assign very high probability to “No” because historical timelines and procedural requirements make a prison sentence by standard market resolution dates extremely unlikely. Late-stage developments such as accelerated charges, new evidence, or an expedited plea could still alter that trajectory, though none have materialized to date.