Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from subdued private consumption, softer capital spending, and a surge in imports tied to alternative crude supplies amid Middle East tensions, following Q2’s 0.3% QoQ expansion (1.1–1.4% annualized). Forecaster surveys point to near-flat or modestly positive annualized growth around 0–0.6%, with weather disruptions further weighing on activity. Trader consensus, reflected in the closely matched 24% probabilities for the 0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6% buckets, underscores uncertainty between modest expansion supported by real wage gains and potential contraction risks. Key upcoming catalysts include the November GDP release and ongoing Bank of Japan policy signals.