**No single party secured a majority in Jalisco’s 38-seat state congress following the July 1, 2026, election, with the final allocation of 18 plurinominal seats still subject to formal challenges.** Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) holds the largest bloc at 14 seats after first-past-the-post district results and proportional distribution, followed by Morena and PAN at 8 seats each, PRI at 4, and smaller shares for PRD, PVEM, and PT. Trader prices remain closely bunched because PVEM, PAN, and PRI have contested the IEPC’s proportional allocation, alleging procedural pressure and seeking additional seats ahead of the November 1 swearing-in. These disputes directly affect which party leads the fragmented legislature and controls committee or leadership roles. Upcoming confirmation of the seat totals and any court rulings on the challenges are the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities among the main contenders.