Ongoing missile and drone threats from Iran and proxies including Hezbollah and the Houthis remain the dominant factor shaping trader views on Israeli airspace closures. The Tel Aviv FIR stays open under restrictions as of mid-October 2026, yet short-notice interruptions persist amid volatile regional tensions following earlier 2026 exchanges of strikes. A September 30 aviation security incident prompted new October crew-nationality rules affecting flights into or over Israeli airspace. EASA maintains a caution advisory through mid-November, while historical patterns show repeated partial or full closures tied to Iranian retaliation or northern border activity. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could alter closure probabilities.