Israel’s security cabinet was scheduled to decide on a proposed US-brokered ceasefire deal with Hezbollah in mid-October 2026, amid reports of significant diplomatic progress and optimism from Washington and Paris. The June 2026 trilateral framework agreement remains stalled over sequencing—Israel conditions full withdrawal on verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in southern zones, while Hezbollah insists on withdrawal first. Ongoing IDF strikes, ground operations, and low-level Hezbollah activity continue despite the framework’s pilot-zone withdrawals and a US-led oversight mechanism. Key near-term catalysts include the cabinet vote, any resumption of direct talks, and Lebanese army expansion into contested areas, all of which traders weigh against risks of renewed escalation or implementation delays.