A June 2026 US-mediated framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon established terms for phased Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Lebanese army deployment in vacated zones, and Hezbollah's cessation of offensive operations, following months of intense conflict. Fighting has since eased substantially, enabling some displaced residents to return, though implementation remains stalled over disarmament sequencing, Israeli security zones, and ongoing demolitions. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has pressed US officials for enforcement pressure, while Israeli statements link full compliance to Hezbollah restraint and upcoming Israeli elections add timing uncertainty. Traders assess whether these steps and the current lull will produce a verifiable two-week effective pause amid risks of renewed violations or escalation.