Israel’s partial pullback from two small “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon under the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework has not expanded, as further redeployments remain explicitly conditioned on verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces control rather than any fixed timetable. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, have repeatedly stated that the IDF will maintain its security buffer for as long as Hezbollah retains weapons and infrastructure, with no automatic or near-term commitment to full withdrawal. Ongoing low-level incidents, skepticism over the Lebanese army’s capacity to enforce demilitarization, and stalled follow-up talks in Rome have reinforced trader expectations of limited progress. Upcoming coordination meetings and any third-party verification steps could incrementally shift positioning, but the conditions-based structure continues to anchor low probabilities for complete Israeli ground-force withdrawal by late 2026.