Israel maintains an expanded security zone in southern Syria following the December 2024 fall of the Assad regime, conducting frequent ground incursions, raids, shelling, and airstrikes concentrated in Quneitra and Daraa provinces. In September 2026 alone, monitors recorded 280 incidents including 113 incursions—the highest monthly total that year—while October saw additional vehicle advances near the Abdeen Dam, home searches, and firing on farmland. Israel cites threats from Iranian-linked networks and the need for a buffer to prevent cross-border attacks, alongside construction of the Sufa 53 fortified line inside Syrian territory. Damascus has condemned these moves as violations of the 1974 disengagement agreement, pursued U.S.-mediated security talks, and raised the issue at the UN, though direct negotiations have faced setbacks from prior strikes. Recent incidents and ongoing operations shape trader assessments of escalation risks or de-escalation timelines through late 2026.