Recent reports indicate Israeli officials are preparing responses to an Iraqi drone attack that killed two soldiers and wounded others in the northern Golan Heights in early October 2026, marking the first such fatalities from Iraqi territory. Following the U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq, Western sources report Washington lifted prior restrictions on Israeli Air Force operations in Iraqi airspace, potentially enabling strikes on Iran-backed militias and weapons corridors. Baghdad has placed forces on alert, sought U.S. defensive support, and urged militia disarmament while rejecting direct responsibility. Israeli statements emphasize disrupting Iranian supply routes through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon, with officials signaling action regardless of immediate retaliation risks. These developments, alongside ongoing militia threats and regional escalation concerns, shape trader assessments of near-term military action probabilities.