Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism at 7–8 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, consistent with the market’s leading outcome. Stable Haredi turnout, limited competition within the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox sector, and focus on the draft exemption law as a red-line condition have anchored support near this level. The October 11 surplus-vote agreement with Shas aims to maximize combined representation and coordinate on religious legislation, while party statements emphasize conditioning any coalition participation on prior passage of draft legislation. Most surveys from the past two weeks show the party clearing the threshold comfortably yet rarely exceeding eight seats, reflecting a contained voter base and absence of major recent catalysts that would shift projections outside the 7–8 range.